The Athletic listed 12 teams in play for Shohei Ohtani.
They did it alphabetically without predictions, so I’m coming back to rank them in order.
I’m going to be the most objective version of myself in analyzing the 12 teams.
Just plain old black and white text like a AIM subprofile circa 2003.
This represents the best thinking I can do about the biggest story of baseball’s offseason.
Obviously money is going to be consideration 1-A, but playoff/legacy opportunities register as a close 1-B.
I don’t think a bad longterm outlook (Padres?)
can be offset by overpaying.
It should be a combination of those two factors leading the way.
After that, consider the organizations that are adept at player development.
Having an infrastructure where Shohei canimproveis critical.
Some of the clubs listed are significantly better (and others equally worse) at helping their players improve.
So I’d call that consideration 3: opportunities for self-improvement.
Then it’s a mixed bag of miscellaneous stuff.
Familiarity probably helps, but I don’t think unfamiliarity necessarily hurts.
But I don’t think that personal absence would hurt another bidder.
It’s just nice to have the line into Shohei for credibility.
Other stuff: the personal aspect of appealing to his legacy.
The sales pitch and relationship building in the free agency window.
That’s the criteria.
I’ll do my best to appropriately mix these factors without keeping a formal score.
More touch and feel within a framework to make this list.
A slightly more European approach but ultimately sound rankings in my professional opinion.
With that, here’s the 12 most likely clubs for Shohei Ohtani in 2024, ranked:
12.
Angels:No fucking shot Shohei Ohtani goes back to the Angels.
I know I just agreed to play both sides but that simply can’t happen here.
The Angels have no chance to keep Ohtani, and that’s a conservative 0% chance.
It’s more likely that birds aren’t real.
The only argument for Shohei to stay in Los Angeles is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Padres: The Padres would have been much higher last offseason.
Then we found outthey needed a loanto hit an inflated payroll that struggled to finish .500.
Rangers: Why not?
And it seems like the free agent investing is really paying off, so why slow down now?
That would bump at least to $150M with just 4 players?
Sure seems like a longshot.
So let’s do it.
Blue Jays:I hate the Blue Jays on this list.
But the arguments are decent.
They haven’t committed any long-term money to Bichette or Vlad Jr. so there’s room for something mega.
Springer is owed $75M over 3 more seasons, which isn’t too obstructive.
Their #1-4 pitchers make about $15M on average.
Manoah certainly isn’t getting a massive extension any time soon.
One thing I can’t understand is their ownership influence.
They’re owned by a publicly traded company (Rogers Communications).
But they also have a diverse media portfolio that could lend itself to a massive international play like Shohei.
So maybe they see the salary as more of a capital investment than an expense.
Maybe the board of directors wants to get Japanese market share.
Who fuckin knows how those Canadian suits think.
Complete wildcard so they’re 9.
Phillies:How many times can the Phillies do it in a row?
That’s the only reason they’re here and this high.
The sensible considerations say NO SHOT here but I can’t work against Middleton at this point.
I just want to highlight that the Phillies have 37 designated hitters already.
Can they really spend more money in MLB history to add a 38th?
That wouldn’t be smart and I think they’re smart.
But holistically speaking, I just don’t know how the Phillies pull it off.
Giants:They have the money, geography, and self-improvement boxes checked substantially.
They do well with practically everyone and that matters with Ohtani.
Although competitively, the Giants are perpetually behind the Dodgers and I think that’s a consideration.
Giants are a solid option albeit on the outside.
Red Sox:The Red Sox could be last on this list.
They could also be higher.
The truth is I have no idea how anyone can read their situation.
Trevor Story has been awful and that contract has at least $95M for the next 4 years.
Devers is also on a big deal, but after that it really thins out.
You have the historical charm, the global appeal and most visible division in MLB.
You name it, the Red Sox have it.
The problem is they’re just not at full capacity right now.
There’s a lot of work to be done as reflected by the front office shake up.
Yankees: Brian Cashman is a bitter little bitch boy.
But most of the reasons I said about the Red Sox equally apply here.
When is money an issue with the Yankees?
I could flip them with the Giants and Red Sox and feel okay.
But I wouldn’t move the Yankees into the top 4.
This is where there’s a clear break into serious contenders where there’s so much to offer.
Mets:Steve Cohen got hosed on the manager search.
There’s enough common sense here for everyone to agree that Steve Cohen can write the biggest check.
Does he offer it?
And does Shohei consider taxes and quality of life?
At least the Yankees can support legacy and a global platform.
And also consider the general toxicity floating around the Mets right now.
I just don’t love the Mets more than the next 3 clubs.
Cubs:Experts would’ve said they’re top-10 over the last year.
Jed fired his friend to build a better team.
That wouldn’t surprise anyone around here, but I’m not going to do it.
There’s only one place that has one more box checked than the Cubs.
The Dodgers have been waiting years for this offseason.
There’s not one weakness to consider in Shohei joining the Dodgers.
They can make a competitive bid with anyone, although I do see one small layered weakness.
They will have a limit on what they offer.
They’re a principled, disciplined group.
I think that limit is outrageously high.
There’s the list 1-12.
I’ll be talking about it with Klemmer later this week on the Barstool Baseball ofseason show.
