If you want xFIP and spray charts then I can’t help you right now.
Let’s get to the matchup.
This is MLB’s golden window with the new rule changes.
The regular season was a staggering success with drastic attendance and rating increases.
But the real juice with the rule changes will come in the playoffs.
Bluntly: this should be the best October baseball of our lives.
Stealing a late base is so much easier.
We’ll have rhythm in the late innings.
Most of the starting pitching is worn out.
Almost every lefty is dead pull without the shift.
And most important is sub 3-hour games.
You’re not getting midnight dramatics.
It’s 10pm central standard, and that 2-hour window absolutely matters.
We still gotta play the games but I’m pretty sure it’s coming in spades.
Good call
Let’s talk Rangers/Rays.
ObviouslyScherzeranddeGromare unavailable and I can equally rule outCody Bradford.
That’s about as bad as it gets to begin the postseason.
Scout’s honor I have a hard time thinking of recently worse starting pitching options.
As Klemmer repeatedly emphasizes in our World Series Power Ranking show,Who the fuck pitches game 2?
Who does it?Name anybody.
The Rays meanwhile haveTyler Glasnow,Zach EflinandAaron Civale.
It’s not the Brewers but that’s plenty talented.
Even if not that successful historically.
So you get his experience + a fresh perspective and approach.
And then Civale is probably the most underrated arm in the series.
His results don’t always match the stuff and he’s largely forgettable.
But he’s good and this one isn’t really close.
Catching:
Jonah Heimstarted the All Star Game for the AL but has been awful in the 2nd half.
If we say RIGHT NOW, then Jonah Heim loses this comparison easily.
He’s been outstanding in comparison to Heim andprobablygets more plate appearances thanChristian Betancourt.
That would make sense based on the last 2 months of play.
I’m not that crazy.
Infield:
This one’s easy.
Corey Seageris the best SS in the American League.Marcus Semienis the best 2nd baseman.
That’s important becauseJosh JungandNathaniel Loweare good baseball players.
It still doesn’t matter.
And I say that knowingYandy DiazandIsaac Paredeshave been sensational for the Rays at the corner infield spots.
Much bigger than Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung having a rough stretch to exit the season.
Outfield:
Randy Arozarenaplays for Tampa.
Randy absolutely DOMINATES tournament baseball.
DH/Bench:
I made it this far without having to mentionRobbie Grossman.
One step further, the Rays have consistently used their bench more effectively than Texas this season.
There’s a greater spread of plate appearances and that’s with the Rangers injuries.
In a perfect world, Bruce Bochy only has 11 players for the 162.
Out of pure practical necessity, you like the Rays bench more.
Same timeMitch Garveris a PROBLEM which is awesome.
Enough at least to consider this more of a coin flip.
But ultimately I still have to take the Rays here.
Bullpen:
The Rangers have an awful bullpen.
The Rays have a good bullpen.
Kevin Cash wins so many baseball games with so few resources.
It’s truly astounding.
The major hurdle has been translating the regular season dominance to October performance.
And that’s largely based on style of play, which is entirely dictated by the front office.
We saw the backlash that creates when he took out Blake Snell in the 2020 World Series.
People still hate that move and rightfully so - it didn’t work.
There’s nothing more to say.
Very few managers win a head-to-head with Bochy and Kevin Cash is certainly not one of them.
Pick
I’ve got it scored 4-3 to Tampa.
They’re at home with much better pitching and a more balanced roster.
The Rangers have firepower but probably not enough to overcome their weaknesses.
I still like Tampa.
But +130 is a great price for a game 1 so that’s the play and I hate it.
Tampa is the pick.
For more on playoff projections:
