Alright, today’s the day.
Oaks was a wild race yesterday while also being a disaster.
Good juju for today.
But we’ve moved onto Derby Day.
The day that everyone in America tuned in to watch the ponies.
Let’s have a damn day.
I’ll make a run at update bets as the day goes on.
The Track
Those gorgeous twinspires.
There are a million prettier views but nothing as iconic as that.
So the race itself?
We got a mile and a quarter on the dirt.
The race actually started at a mile and a half and then changed in 1896.
Yep, that’s not a typo.
Same race at a mile and a quarter since 1896.
Perhaps even crazier is Secretariat still holding the record for the fastest race at 1:59.4 in 1973.
It’s not the Kentucky Derby without a big floppy hat.
Just felt the need to include hats.
The Conditions
Looks like we’re going to be okay as of now.
The weather seems to be holding up after a beautiful day on Friday.
While the mud is fun, give me a fair track with great weather.
And yes this is at 6:16.
Goddamn kids in the house + an early tee time scramble outing.
Morning Odds
Thanks to Hollywood Races(download it here)this is what we have at 6:38am.
Longshots
These are the horses I’m throwing out right away.
You gotta draw a line somewhere in the race.
Right off the bat, I don’t trust any of these horses:
1.
Hit Show -3 wins in 5 starts.
This was a borderline cut for me, but again, have to decide somewhere.
I’m cutting him though because he hasn’t really raced against anyone I like.
The results aren’t there against talent.
Now the reason for taking him is Geroux won with a similar running horse in 2021.
He wants to be up top early and set some pace.
Sun Thunder -Elite name but only 1 win in 6 starts.
In fact only hit the board 3 times out of the 6.
He wants to come from a deep closing spot but no thank you.
The same race with Verifying and Tapit Trice.
Was never close, so toss him.
Actually had a chance going home.
That said has results losing to Forte, Angel of Empire, King Russell and Reincarnate.
Cyclone Mischief -Another elite name that I actually really liked in the Florida Derby.
He finished 3rd behind Forte (duh) and Mage, but was still a good showing.
That said, speed numbers and results show the ceiling is more middle of the pack.
A true closer horse, exactly how it ran at the Arkansas Derby coming on late.
you could’t bet all of them.
Hurts me to cut 3 great names in Sun Thunder, Raise Cain and Cyclone Mischief.
But when you’re building bets the first thing you gotta do is cut it down.
Horses I want to use in my exotics basically:
2.
Finished second to Tapit Trice over at Keeneland but the Cox/Gaffalione connection here is important at Churchill.
The inside position helps here, especially with the stalking tendencies of the horse.
Confidence Game -A lot of familiarity with the track.
Confidence Game has 4 races at Churchill, two first places and a 3rd.
However, all those races came in 2022.
Not a lot of results/races against big name horses in the race.
The breeding history is there, but competition results are tough
7.
Reincarnate -This horse has my attention!
7-for-7 on hitting the board, Johnny V on board and the only ‘former Baffert’ horse here.
Good chance for this horse to set a lot of pace, similar to Medinia Spirit.
Mage -A horse that broke my heart at the Florida Derby.
Not because it finished 2nd but because it finished 2nd and ruined my Forte/Cyclone Mischief straight exacta.
One hell of a move on the finish to get in position and challenge all the top horses.
Disarm -Rosario on the mount here and some interesting results?
I guess that’s the best way to put it.
The Louisiana Derby was a 2nd place finish but no one was close to Kingsbarns.
Mandarin Hero -I really, really like Mandarin Hero.
I know you shouldn’t bet the Japanese horses based on history, but fuck that.
History is meant to be broken.
Two Phil’s -4-for-4 in hitting the board in stakes races.
Keeps the same jockey on the horse throughout the entire time.
KingsBarns -Kingsbarns is worth looking at because of the Louisiana Derby.
The horse is going to press the pace and went gate to wire at the Louisiana Derby.
In fact it wasn’t close.
Tapit Trice -Wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the favorite.
We’re on a 4-race winning streak here obviously the Tapit ties.
Now here’s the concern.
Tapit Trice breaks dogshit from the gate every single time.
It ends up closing, but with a 19-horse field and some other good horses.
That’s the key for Tapit Trice.
Angel of Empire -Everyone is picking this horse it seems.
The results are there.
4 wins in 6 starts.
Won at the Arkansas Derby with a lot of juice still left.
Hard to argue the connections too.
Brad Cox and Flavien Prat (the best jockey in my opinion out there).
Forte -The current favorite but there is some concern.
A couple days ago we had a Twitter rumor that he might scratch after seeing a limp.
That was shut down but worth monitoring still.
6 wins in 7 starts is outrageous.
He’s not running against shit either.
Arguably the best post position though.
15 is a popular winning gate number.
Good post for Irad to stalk like Forte wants to.
SCRATCHED
17.
Derma Sotogake -The other Japanese horse that’s becoming a favorite pick.
Don’t be surprised to see this horse take the lead early.
That’s what happened at the UAE Derby and this race doesn’t have a lot of speed early.
Most of the horses want to stalk.
Betting Strategy
Win Bet-2.
Verifying
Exacta Bet -
I’m building around my top 3 picks.
Tapit Trice and 17.
Anything else and you’re looking at a decent pay day.
This isn’t too bad of a deal $24 ticket for every $1.
You could even cut Forte out and make it $21.
Trying to save some money and really just play the two horses I like the most up top.
Pick 4 - starting race 9
There you have it.
1,500 words on today’s Kentucky Derby.
Gonna be a hell of a day.
Get your bourbon, get your bets.
I’ll update stuff as I can on Twitter and put more bets out there.
Let me know your favorite bets @barstoolreags.
Have a day folks.
