These predictions capture an ongoing debate about whether conflict in cyberspace is destined tosupplant conventional conflictor exacerbate it.
As the war has evolved, its clear that analysts on both sides of the debate got it wrong.
A tactical role for cyberattacks?
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Its common in modern warfare for new technologies to substitute for traditional military tactics.
In theory, cyber operations could have played a similar tactical role in Russias invasion of Ukraine.
But overall, Ukraine has managed tomaintain internet accessandcellphone servicefor most of the country.
Russia hassophisticatedcyber capabilities, and its hackers haveworked their way into Ukrainian networksfor many years.
We also focused onthe conflicts in Syria and eastern Ukraine.
Our results suggest that cyber operations are generally not being used as either.
There may be other reasons for the lack of overlap between cyber and conventional fronts in Ukraine.
The Russian military could consider cyber operations ineffective for its purposes.
The newness of cyber operations as a tool of war makes itdifficult to coordinatewith conventional military operations.
Also, military targets might not be accessible to hackers because they might lack internet connectivity.
In any event,evidencethat the Russian government intends to use cyber operations tocomplementmilitary operations isthin.
In addition, Russia has been using information campaigns to attempt to win the hearts and minds of Ukrainians.
The Russian governmentsdomestic actionsemphasize the value its leadership places on information operations.
Nevertheless, the lack of overlap between cyber and conventional military operations makes sense operationally and strategically.
This is not to say that the informational focus of cyber operations has no effect on military operations.
Good intelligence isessential for successin any military conflict.
