MIT researchers have used AI to predict which technologies are rapidly improving and which ones are overhyped.
The fastest-improving domains werepredominantly software-related.
Their research could give entrepreneurs, researchers, investors, and policy-makers clues about the future opportunities in tech.
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They first divided the patents into 1,757 discrete technology domains.
Each of these was comprised of inventions thatfulfill a specific function using a distinct branch of scientific knowledge.
The researchers then estimated theaverage centrality of patents in each domain.
This calculation encompasses multiple criteria to determine the importance of different nodes within a patent citation connection.
The results were used to make predictions on each domains annual performance improvement.
On average, technology improvements were forecast at a rate of 19% per annum.
In addition, the rates of improvement were not a strong function of the patent set size.
This suggests that investors, firms, or countries seeking productivity gains should focus their investments in these areas.
Nonetheless, the method could enhance the accuracy of technology forecasting.
Lets just hope no one figures out a way to game the system.
you’ve got the option to read the open-access study paperhere.
Story byThomas Macaulay
Thomas is the managing editor of TNW.
He leads our coverage of European tech and oversees our talented team of writers.
Away from work, he e(show all)Thomas is the managing editor of TNW.
He leads our coverage of European tech and oversees our talented team of writers.
Away from work, he enjoys playing chess (badly) and the guitar (even worse).
