We’ll start with some enticing bets to steer clear from.
The under is no good either at -2500.
Although not nearly as bad as swimming with the octopus.
As for the under.
That’s ended up being much much worse at -14% EV.
I’m officially warning you all about the warning.
You might not be surprised to learn that exact score hit in a Super Bowl.
Patriots vs Rams in 2001 to start the dynasty.
In fact, nine out of the 20 most common NFL scores overall occurred on a Super Bowl.
Despite some very common game scores occurring in past Super Bowls, this is still a long shot bet.
The house is hoping you see these common scores and take the bait.
Getting +410 on just an 18.4 percent leaves the house with a six percent edge.
I know what you’re thinking.
So what SHOULD we bet on them!
Length of longest made field goal or total points scored in game?
- POINTS
This one was fun to reverse engineer.
Let’s walk through the logic.
We’ll start by trying to estimate what the longest made field goal in the game will be.
The table below will help us do this.
But anytime you have little data to go off of like this just know the confidence will be lower.
It is what it is.
Don’t bet your house.
So we have an average longest made field goal in weeks that both teams played of 45.6 yards.
We’ll presume that’s what the longest made field goal will be tonight.
What we need to know now is our odds of the total score going 46 or over.
I estimated that by taking all 424 instances in which an NFL line was set at exactly 47.5.
46 points or more were scored in 236/424 games with a 47.5 total line (55.6%).
Those are our presumed odds of winning this bet that pays -125.
I know that was a lot of work but now it’s time to bask in our glory.
Get ready for this.
But in my defense, that wasn’t really an option here - you had to pick WHICH over.
God damn these fuckers are good at setting lines.
At least I know I kinda found the way they comped this bet.
That’s probably what is leading most people to take the over on this.
Here’s my logic for why that will be a mistake.
There’s 19 total games between these two teams in which this over occurred at least once.
The book is giving us a 5.66% EV on the under.
Get ready to go hog wild on a few more cases of soda.
Queue an opening CMC house call on the first play of the game.
My favorite bet of chaos actually might be worth doing.
I did the work to fire off the total jersey number totals for both teams.
Remember, a player scoring two touchdowns doesn’t double his figure.
We have 14/18 hitting the over.
Even at -150 that’s a HUGE EV of 28%.
But I’ll be damned if I’m not going to bet on some damn laundry.
It’s the Super Bowl!
Fade me at your investment.
