Were on the edge of a major social shift in mobility.Autonomous vehicles are going to change our lives.
Commutes will be unrecognizable, cities will change, and industries reshaped.
Were still a long way away from that but companies are edging ever closer.
There are prime examples, both approaching the challenge in very different ways.
The first is Tesla, with itsbeta-testing of Level 2 driver-assist techthat aims to progress to full vehicle automation.
The second is a group of companies involved in the development and deployment of autonomous robotaxis.
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And how do we get from here to a fully autonomous future?
Scale is also critical.
We need a lot of cars on the road before vehicle automation is anywhere near hitting critical mass.
Lets a look at how the two approachesface up against each other.
How do Tesla sales compare to the number of robotaxis on the road?
In 2021, Tesla reportedlyproduced and deliveredover 930,000 electric cars worldwide.
If we look at the number of sales alone, thats a mammoth army of Tesla owners.
So, if Tesla can successfully develop autonomous tech, they win the battle on private car ownership alone.
Thats a big if though, especially considering theyre only testingLevel 2vehicle automation.
So, could Tesla even get from cars to robotaxis?
Currently,Teslas driver-assist cannot be deployed without an initialsafety scoredetermined by monitoring user behavior over some time.
If the companys goal is to go from driver-assist FSD to robotaxi, a lot needs to go right.
Plus, there has to be a technological improvement much of which current robotaxi makers are already deploying.
By comparison, if we look at China, theadoption of FSDis surprisingly low.
This makes it difficult to advance their driving tech in the real world.
Especially when we compare it to the heavy lifting already done by companies like Argo, Cruise, andWaymo.
How long for the first robotaxi release/ deployment?
But does this translate to 100,000 robotaxis in the making?
Theyre still beta testing Level 2!
Compare this to the groundwork existing robotaxi companies have put in.
Cruise (majority-owned by GM) is currently deploying autonomous robotaxis in San Francisco.
How easy will it be to get all states on board?
Currently, autonomous taxis only operate on pre-mapped streets.
By comparison, Tesla FSD drivers can go anywhere.
Whos in the best position?
If I was to place a bet, I think well see more Teslas on the road than robotaxis.
So there we are.
The robotaxi industry and Tesla have significant challenges scaling and evolving their tech.
Story byCate Lawrence
Cate Lawrence is an Australian tech journo living in Berlin.
