THIS is the hot dog blog!
Once that drops, I’ll be back with my card.
But for now - you’re gonna wanna study dog to get to know dog.
Get your bibs and bucket of dipping water ready.
Let’s get to it.
Each hot dog weighs 3.5 ounces according to Nathan’s - bun included.
This means Joey Chestnut has eaten 252 lbs.
worth of dogs in just this event alone.
That’s a middle linebacker.
Call it a place kicker (except Fat Randy Bullock).
Let’s get a little deeper now and learn how the game has changed over time.
Below is what hungry statisticians call a hot dog on a stick graph.
It shows the range of hot dogs eaten from all contestants by year.
The contest actually started in 1972, but with so few contestants back then I started at 1990.
This dude could practically beer bong an entire case back in the day.
Maybe they didn’t allow him to dip his dog in beer and he quit.
But it’s the outliersabovethe dog that are the real story.
This is the Kobayashi/Chestnut effect.
This is not your unemployed Uncle Bobby’s game anymore.
That was just enough to hold off Kazutoyo Arai’s 24 which would have set a record itself.
Fair to say Jakajima would request we use era-adjusted figures when comparing his 24.5 to the whipper snappers today.
Another would-be record breaking non-record in 2001.
Even for a professional hot dog eater, this must have been tough to swallow.
So much interest that by 2020 you could wager bets on it.
That brings us to the meat of the hot dog blog.
Wienerlytics
OK, enough history.
Let’s talk turkey.
Or whatever they put in those things.
Everyone knows Chestnut is the huge favorite.
This leads one to wonder if such a grueling feat of athleticism might have an age cliff.
They say most quarterbacks find the cliff in their late 30s.
But what about hot dog eating?
Do major league eaters end up getting… washed down?
I’m actually not seeing much here.
Kobayashi ended his career with his personal best yet still wasn’t good enough to beat Chestnut.
Most eaters made the largest chunk of their improvements in the first three years.
But there were exceptions.
So it’s certainly not impossible.
But the data suggests not to count on it.
But given his plateauing the past four years - I just can’t see an upset happening.
You know who else can’t see it happening?
So, is all of this advanced wienerlytics just to say bet on the obvious favorites???
OK. Sure, maybe.
But for those who have the capital and fancy minus sign betting (looking at you PFT!)
this is as close to a sure thing as you’ll find.
A Chestnut/Sudo parlay is definitely a winning Pork Parlay if they allow it.
