The MLB playoffs start today.
This is the 2nd blog previewing the Wild Card round.
MLB nailed the rule changes and it’s 100% bleeding into the postseason.
I predict an abundance of late game drama and blown leads.
More than any postseason to date actually and I want this on official record.
I mean it and this preview should hammer that point.
We can all be better.
So that’s the point of this preview blog.
Where as Rangers/Rays was more about the individual players, this is more about the collective performance.
And if you don’t know shit, then you’re in the right spot.
This is by my far my favorite series preview.
Starting Pitching
I’m not there.
Jose Berrios and Bassit have done their best, and Kevin Gausman is 1B.
And to be clear.
I mean no disrespect towards Gausman’s 2-pitch brilliance, or the Blue Jays overall depth.
It’s probably MLB’s 6th or 7th best staff.
The Twins starters have been #1 or 2 in a lot of categories.
And last but not least: percentage of pitches swung at outside the strikezone.
These are just 1 & 2 across MLB.
If you include top 5, then I would have to list nearly every single statistic.
That’s for a couple reasons.
Sonny Gray is having a career year.
Pablo Lopez has been powerful.
The rest of the rotation has been solid and most importantly, healthy.
The end result is a great starting pitching culture.
The Blue Jays aren’t far behind, but they are.
And that’s why I opened with Manoah.
2022 Alek + Gausman would be better than Pablo + Sonny for this series.
But that’s not the case which makes this much easier.
Moreno hit .284 in 111 games for Arizona and will start tonight against the Brewers.
He’s only 23 and the Blue Jays knew he’d be this good.
So what does that say about the guys the Blue Jays kept?
Top-5 tandem between Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen.
Both young and cheap, hence the trade.
And throughout the year, they were good enough to be good enough.
But Kirk’s slumped and the slug dropped and Jansen’s off the roster with a broken finger.
On paper you want to say Blue Jays easy but the truth is it’s a big question mark.
Opposite that is a guy named Ryan Jeffers, a large and milky power-hitting catcher from UNC Wilmington.
A career .830 minor league OPS finally translates to consistent big league production.
He’s hit .270 in the last 2-months of assuming daily catching duties and he’s on a terror.
Either one, he’s got a .974 OPS since September 1st and is destroying the baseball.
100% free-range, grass-fed, USDA certified beef
Surprisingly: Advantage Twins.
Infielders
Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. have been underwhelming at best.
Meanwhile the Twins have gotten a downright bad season from Correa.
He’s banged up but on the playoff roster and slated to play.
That’s better than the alternative, but I wouldn’t be throwing a party.
The real value has been in the Twins platoons and matchups.
16 players have gotten at least 250 plate appearances.
Another 5 are 110+ so there’ssomejuiceacross the entire lineup.
I’ll consider that more when we get to bench.
For now, we’re talking infielders and I haven’t mentioned Matt Chapman.
He was awesome in the 1st half, beyond bad in the 2nd.
Give me the star power.
squats 185^
The Twins are a clear step below.
And honestly, I couldn’t guess how they split the time up in the next 3 games.
DH/Bench
The Blue Jays have the 2nd best PH value in baseball this year.
The Twins have the 3rd.
It’s very close.
But ultimately I’m taking the Twins blender of players.
They’re all faceless and nameless and that’s just the reality.
I talked about it earlier and I’m simplifying it now.
I’m not backing off that success now.
IT’S VERY GOOD.
Jordan Romano, Canadian national
People won’t say that but I mean it.
Even if Schneider doesn’t know how to use it.
They lead baseball in plenty of reliever categories, although the Twins aren’t far behind.
They’re two very solid staffs, top to bottom.
Between the two, I’d rather have the Twins starting rotation but the Blue Jays bullpen.
But also between the two, you’d be competitive with the opposite.
That makes sense to me so read it twice.
I’m not rewriting it.
Manager
Rocco Baldelli battled channelopathy which is a lot worse than managing a playoff series.
He’s also a legend from my youth and will always hold a special level of nostalgia.
I’m admitting my bias upfront.
I’ll further that bias in saying that John Schneider lost me in the 2nd half.
But after the glaze dried and crusted, I realized the Blue Jays should always be better.
They’re always leaving us wanting more and that’s why I like Baldelli more.
He’s doing the complete opposite.
Nobody wants to see the Twins and yet here they are.
He’s doing a good enough job for me to summarily dismiss any and all Schneider counter arguments.
Advantage Twins
Pick
On paper it’s the Blue Jays easy, so we’re confident in the Twins.
0 for their last 18 to be specific.
So you have to figure that changes at some point, right?
I feel insane for doing it but I have to.
Minnesota’s time is now.
