The US has unveiled an unusual new approach to saber-rattling with China: emotion predictions.
A US defense official said the software calculates strategic friction, but provided little detail about how it works.
We tried to dig up further information but unearthed more questions than answers.
How would the tool work?
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It then predicts which future activities will upset China, up to four months in advance.
Its hard to envision how such a system would work in practice.
How is the training data validated?
What information does it use to reach a decision?
How is it built into the workflow of the military?
Could such a system really provide accurate predictions?
But Im much more skeptical about the ability of AI to predict major political responses from Chinas political leaders.
Lee points to the example of Chinas actions on the last day of COP 26.
What would it be used for?
The US surely didnt need a tool to realize that this action would antagonize Beijing.
Didnt its throng of human analysts could predict this response?
Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks suggested the tool would play a supplementary role.
Why has the US announced its existence?
Tensions between the US and China are mounting.
The nations are increasingly at odds over Taiwan, trade, technology, and governance.
USSecretary of State Antony J. Blinken has described the relationship as thebiggest geopolitical testof the 21st century.
The unveiling of this tool adds another element to the discord.
When military powers divulge a new system, its because they want their rivals to know about its existence.
The promotion of the predictive tool could form part of this strategy.
However, we can only speculate about the motivations behind disclosing the software.
It would certainly provide a new approach toplausible deniability.
Did they ignore the software?
Did it make inaccurate predictions?
Did they choose the antagonistic action?
What could possibly go wrong?
Story byThomas Macaulay
Thomas is the managing editor of TNW.
He leads our coverage of European tech and oversees our talented team of writers.
Away from work, he e(show all)Thomas is the managing editor of TNW.
He leads our coverage of European tech and oversees our talented team of writers.
Away from work, he enjoys playing chess (badly) and the guitar (even worse).
