Its safe to say that Putins invasion of Ukraine hasnt gone to plan.
Russian forces are suffering mounting setbacks, after underestimating the resistance of his adversaries and thats just in cyberspace.
The Kremlinshackerarmy like its conventional military hasnt lived up to its fearsome reputation.
At least, not yet.
Analysts have offered an array of explanations for Russias cyber limitations.
They range from upgrades to Ukraines defenses to changes in the Kremlins tactics.
Be afraid and expect the worst.
The early signs were ominous.
Ever since armed conflict in the Donbas erupted in 2014, Russia-linked hackers have bombarded Ukrainian IT systems.
The lead-up to the full-scale invasion escalated concerns.
The cyber threat escalated as Russias armed forces advanced.
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On February 24, hours before Russia invaded Ukraine, hackers struck the companys modems.
Russia, as usual, denied responsibility.
The incident sparked fears that a catastrophic cyber war had begun.
Ukrainian officials, however, recently said the attack had little impact.
The other ways of communication remained alive…
There was no loss of coordination between forces, Zhora said atthe IT Arena conference in Lvivlast month.
Nonetheless, the reverberations were felt beyond Ukraines borders.
The collateral damage exposed a danger that hacks can pose to their perpetrators: unintended consequences.
The Viasat attack provided a powerful example.
The spillover affected tens of thousands of internet users across Europe, and as far away as Morocco.
The 2017 NotPetya worm which was alsowidely attributed to Russia spread even further.
Not all of these victims were intentionally targeted.
Cyber weapons can spiral out of control which can backfire on the assailants.
Kenneth Geers, an ambassador at the NATO Cyber Center, believes the Viasat hack galvanized Ukraines allies.
That may have been a big mistake… All of a sudden, youve got the political level engaged.
Those allies have been integral to Ukraines defenses.
The US, for instance, has provided over $40 million in cyber development assistance since 2017.
Such growing support for the worlds one true superpower has buttressed Ukraines cyber fortress.
Weve been strengthening Ukraines cyber defenses for years.
Further assistance has come from both other countries and international organizations.
For example, Ukraine has access to NATOs malware information-sharing platform.
Where experts exchange information about threats and responses in real-time.
Another key development in Russias cyber shortcomings is the growing collaboration between Ukraine with industry.
The private sector is also deeply entrenched in the defense of Ukraine.
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These relationships have bolstered Ukraines already formidable digital defenses.
Shifting strategies
Ukraine isoften describedas a testing ground for cyber weapons.
These experiences have provided extensive insights into digital warfare.
This made us stronger, said Zhora.
We took our lessons from this cyber aggression.
A powerful example emerged in April.
The escape followed a wave of changes to Ukraines defenses.
Technical moves have further improved resilience.
The country has also benefited from a so-called IT Army of thousands of supportive hackers.
He pledged to share the insights from these events with allies.
Ukraine is willing to help.
Our security experience is your security experience.
Despite the impressive defenses, Russias limited cyber successes have surprised many pundits.
Some experts argue that Russia has burned its most potent weapons.
The NotPetya attack, for instance, would be difficult to reproduce.
Another potential constraint is a lack of targets.
Ukraine has a lot of old Soviet military equipment, which lacks the digital components required for cyber attacks.
These issues offer one explanation for the Kremlin prioritizing kinetic assaults on infrastructure.
In the digital realm, information warfare can be more straightforward than cyber attacks.
It could get worse.
In recent weeks, Russias cyber attacks have appeared haphazard.
Yet Zhora emphasized that more targeted cyber tactics could be under development.
Indeed, there are growing concerns that Moscows failures on the battlefield will intensify the focus on cyberspace.
I believe the cyber situation could still get much worse.
Lets hope it doesnt.
Story byThomas Macaulay
Thomas is the managing editor of TNW.
He leads our coverage of European tech and oversees our talented team of writers.
Away from work, he e(show all)Thomas is the managing editor of TNW.
He leads our coverage of European tech and oversees our talented team of writers.
Away from work, he enjoys playing chess (badly) and the guitar (even worse).
