It seemed only fitting.
A massive planetesimal, smashing into Earth.
The asteroid does not pose a threat to life on Earth.
Most likely, it will sail harmlessly past our planet.
So, whats the story?
Our story begins a couple of years ago, on November 3, 2018.
The near-Earth asteroid Eros, which is thousands of times larger than 2018 VP1.
It’s free, every week, in your inbox.
The asteroid was very faint, and hard to spot against the background stars.
The orbit of asteroid 2018 VP1 intersects Earths orbit once every two years.
But how close will it come?
Well, thats the million-dollar question.
And thats why the future of 2018 VP1 is uncertain.
It was observed 21 times over 13 days, which allows its orbit to be calculated fairly precisely.
We know it takes 2 years (plus or minus 0.001314 years) to go around the Sun.
In other words, our uncertainty in the asteroids orbital period is about 12 hours either way.
Imagine a huge bubble in space, perhaps 4 million km across at its largest.
We can be very confident the asteroid will be somewhere in the bubble but thats about it.
What does that mean for Earth?
We can also work out the likelihood the asteroid will hit Earth during this close approach.
The odds are 0.41%, or roughly 1 in 240.
But what if it did hit us?
As the greatTerry Pratchettonce wrote, Million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
But have you ever heard someone say Its a 240-to-1 chance, but it might just work?
So should we be worried?
Based on how faint it was, astronomers estimate its only about two meters across.
Objects that sizehit Earth all the time.
The Chelyabinsk airburst was spectacular, and the shockwave damaged buildings and injured more than 1,500 people.
2018 VP1 is so small it poses no threat.
It would almost certainly burn up harmlessly in our atmosphere before it reached the ground.
Having said that, the fireball as the asteroid entered Earths atmosphere would be spectacular.
A bright fireball, imaged by the Perenjori station of the Australian Desert Fireball web link.
But, most likely, November 3 will come around and nothing will have happened.
2018 VP1 will have passed by, likely unseen, back to the depths of space.
Even if Earth is in the crosshairs, though, theres nothing to worry about.
