But this judgment seems premature.
Most commentary focuses onChinese strengthsin EV technology and production, or the size of Chinas EV market.
In other words, even if China gets good at making EVs, will EVs be good for China?
The EV is a clear example of an emergingindustrial revolution: one that combineslow-carbonand digital technology.
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Historical comparisons can help us understand what is at stake here.
The US situation back then and the Chinese situation today share many similarities.
However, at the time of the mass adoption of the motorcar, the US enjoyed a unique position.
None of these factors today apply to China regarding the EV.
Chinas ultimate domination of the EV sector would require Chinese EVs to compete successfully in these established markets.
The car is a comparatively simple machine.
Simply replacing cars with EVs will not solve congestion ortransport inequalitiesin society.
Their digitization threatens to make the EV a vehicle for unprecedented levels of surveillance and control of peoples mobility.
Chinese companies hoping to enter overseas markets seem to bepoorly preparedto manage such controversy.
Currently, therefore, the most likely scenario seems not to be unrivaled Chinese EV leadership.
