Time and again, leading scientists, technologists, and philosophers have madespectacularly terrible guessesabout the direction of innovation.
Shortly thereafter, the consensus switched to fears of an imminent nuclear holocaust.
Similarly, todays experts warn that anartificial general intelligence (AGI) doomsdayis imminent.
Others retort that large language models (LLMs) have already reachedthe peakof their powers.
We ought to heed Collingridges warning that technology evolves in uncertain ways.
However, there is one class of AI risk that is generally knowable in advance.
Its also about ensuring that value from AI is widely shared, by preventing premature consolidation.
OpenAI is already becoming a dominant player with $2 billion (1.6 billion) in annualsalesandmillionsof users.
Asthe saying goes: history doesnt necessarily repeat itself but it does rhyme.
These platforms made markets more efficient and delivered enormous value both to users and to product suppliers.
Amazons advertising business is a case in point.
But it is far from alone.
Science fiction writer and activist Cory Doctorow calls this theenshittificationof Big Tech platforms.
But not all rents are bad.
According to the economist Joseph Schumpeter, rents received by a firm from innovating can bebeneficial for society.
Big Techs platforms got ahead through highly innovative, superior, algorithmic breakthroughs.
The current market leaders in AI are doing the same.
User preferences were downgraded in algorithmic importance in favour of more profitable content.
It is a predictable economic risk.
Algorithms have become market gatekeepers and value allocators, and are now becoming producers and arbiters of knowledge.
But how much greater are the risks for the next generation of AI systems?
They will shape not just what information is shown to us, but how we think and express ourselves.
Thankfully, society is not helpless in shaping the economic risks that invariably arise after each new innovation.
Risks brought about from the economic environment in which innovation occurs are not immutable.
The internet protocols helped keep the internet open instead of closed.
Open source software enabled it to escape from under the thumb of the PC eras dominant monopoly.
What role might interoperability and open source play in keeping the AI industry a more competitive and inclusive market?
Disclosureis another powerful market-shaping tool.
Disclosures can require technology companies to provide transparent information and explanations about their products and monetisation strategies.
After all, even Einstein couldnt do that.
We are not opposed to Amazon offering advertising services to firms on its third-party marketplace.
