Its time tostop training radiologists.
AI canpredict where and when crimes will occur.
Thisneural data pipe can tell if youre gay.
There will bea million Tesla robotaxis on the road by the end of 2020.
Weve all seen the hyperbole.
Big techs boldest claims make for the medias most successful headlines, and the general public cant get enough.
To be perfectly clear: we definitely need more radiologists.
AI cant predict crimes, anyone who says otherwise is selling something.
Theres also no AI that can tell if a human is gay,the premise itself is flawed.
It’s free, every week, in your inbox.
But theres a pretty good chance you believe at least one of those myths are real.
To them, the only thing holding back the artificial general intelligence industry is scale.
Just convert everything to tokens and predict the next token.
But weve heard that one before, havent we?
Its theinfinite monkey theorem.
Lets say the folks at DeepMind suddenly shout Eureka!
and declare theyve witnessed the emergence of a general artificial intelligence.
What if the folks at Microsoft call bullshit?
Or what ifIan Goodfellowsays its real, butGeoffrey HintonandYann LeCundisagree?
Theres currently no single metric by which any individual or governing body could declare an AGI to have arrived.
Turing recommended a test called the imitation game in his seminal 1950 paper Computer Machinery and Intelligence.
Back in the 1950s, it made sense.
The world was a long ways away from natural language processing and computer vision.
One clear goal is passing the Turing test, for 10 minute chat.
I’d call this human level intelligence at the short timescale.
I think this can happen from scale and existing methods alone.
But isnt that just another way of saying that AGI will magically emerge if we just scale deep learning?
GPT-3 occasionally spits out snippets of text that are so coherent as to seem salient.
It feels a bit like Dimakis might be putting the goal posts on the 49-yard-line here.
Dont stop believing
That doesnt mean well never get there.
Biological brainsmay actually be quantum systems.
That might sound like Im rebuking the played-out battle-cry of scaling is all you need!
with the equally obnoxious quantumall the things, but at least theres a precedence for the fantasy Im pushing.
Humans exist, and were pretty smart.
And we can be 99% certain that our intelligence emerged as the result of quantum effects.
Or, maybe, AGI wont emerge from anything on its own.
Its possible itll actually require some intelligent design.
