Congratulations to all of us, we’ve done it.
We’re a sick bunch, don’t kid yourself.
Once you get there?
And how does Bryce Harper’s team of destiny die?
With that I’ve prepared for you one of my favorite annual blogs to write.
Below you’ll see 4,000+ words detailing how your favorite team can and cannot contend this year.
Maybe that’ll change this year, but for now we must begin.
Everyone get cozy, let’s begin with the American League.
Quick offseason recap: Juan Soto was traded to the Yankees.
Scott Boras refused to let any of his big name guys sign and got burned for it.
That was sweet wasn’t it?
Listen, are the Yankees a fully operational death star?
There are three guys who cannot go down for the Yankee: Cole, Judge, and Soto.
Contend:Cole returns in June and is his normal self.
The big x factor though, health aside, will be Carlos Rodon.
2023 was a fucking disaster for him.
Short of simply not pitching at all, it couldn’t have been much worse.
He knows it and we know it.
That allows Stroman to settle in as your 3 and excel with less pressure.
And how about Anthony Volpe?
You have Volpe online as a threat and this lineup becomes a pinstripe diehard’s wet dream.
Did I mention Juan Soto is a New York Yankee yet?
Fail:Cole’s elbow explodes while trying to ramp up in May.
The Marcus Stroman experiment ends up in the flames many feared.
Volpe’s defense regresses after a gold glove year and the bat once again fails to come along.
Soto gets shipped of at the deadline for prospects.
Eric becomes very, very sad.
When it comes to projection systems I typically just trust the ones that have my team doing the best.
Turns out this model only cares about your final 100 games of the previous season which seems absolutely preposterous.
Baltimore Orioles (90.5)
The Orioles are infuriating.
How can you be this good already without calling up your best player?
While Jackson Holliday did not make the Opening Day roster, he will for sure be up here soon.
Last, but not least?
The O’s traded for bonafide ace Corbin Burnes this offseason to bolster their staff.
Rude if I may say so myself.
I don’t like this at all.
Jackson Holliday will likely join the team this summer, if not before.
They’d have to really mess this up to not be one of the top contenders in the AL.
Fail:Eye test wise the O’s pass with flying colors.
The metrics do think their 2023 campaign was a bit flukey, hence their win total being only 90.5.
If the Orioles falter in 2024 it’ll be because of the pitching though.
Kyle Bradish’s elbow could be the key as he tries to navigate a dreaded UCL sprain.
Another aspect that could lead to some regression?
A full season without Felix Bautista.
That guy was a rock for Baltimore.
If they needed anywhere from 3-6 outs he was there to shut the door.
9th innings are going to be a whole lot different experience in Baltimore this season.
You didn’t have to worry for a second with the big man out there.
You won’t have nails to bite.
Just a funny, cruel scenario that I’ve been thinking about.
We are dangerously nearing the end of the window where you continuously run out this core, right?
Vladdy needs a bounce back season desperately.
Alek Manoah is still not a factor and is nursing a bum shoulder to begin the season.
Contend:Vladdy returns to his elite form and fights for the MVP award all season.
The 1-2-3-4 of Springer, Bo, Vladdy, and Justin Turner carries Toronto the playoffs.
Their rotation dominates while Rodriguez becomes an elite option out of the pen.
Fail:Once again the idea of the Blue Jays becomes far deadlier than the actual product.
Vladdy and Bo each have two years of control left.
Are they planning on extending both of them?
Tampa Bay Rays (84.5)
I’ve had it up to here with the Rays and their tomfoolery.
How the fuck did this team win 99 games last year?
Starting the year 13-0 and then 20-3 was such bullshit.
Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen will likely miss the whole year recovering from Tommy John.
They traded Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers.
THIS IS THEIR ROTATION
We didn’t even mention that Wander Franco is likely spending the season in jail.
I simply will not allow this team to be elite again.
Contend: If the Rays are actual good then all other 29 owners need to demand an investigation.
We’re talking legitimate magic and sorcery.
You think that Oz guy is special?
He’s got nothing if the Rays truly contend this year.
How is their win total even 84.5 games and not something in the 70s?
Realistically that happens because it’s the Rays.
I’m sure they’ll win 95 games and drive me to a furious rage.
Fail:Their lineup is fine at best and their rotation is not good by any stretch.
They traded Tyler Glasnow.
When you do that it should mean a reset year is coming.
We need a year where the Rays suck.
John Henry is more concerned about the Penguins, Liverpool, and now the PGA.
He hasn’t spoken to the media in over a year now.
Boston has made it abundantly clear they’re working under a strict budget and don’t care about 2024.
Fresh off back to back last place finishes, that’s exactly what the fans want to hear.
It’s not a likely scenario, but it wouldn’t completely stun me.
One pitcher they need to level up is Garrett Whitlock as a starting pitcher.
This is a very important year for him.
Truly remarkable stuff going on up there these days.
Their number is 77.5 for a reason.
Once again someone will represent this division in the playoffs simply because that’s how the rules work.
Whoever comes out on top will have virtually zero chance to win the World Series.
That being said, the Twins actually won a playoff series last year thanks to the hapless Blue Jays.
That’s serious progress compared to the results we’ve seen from them over the last two decades.
They had a hefty departure by the name of Sonny Gray, who took his talents to St. Louis.
Contend: What is contend for the Twins?
Is it winning the central?
Is it striking fear in the eyes of any true American League World Series hopeful?
The rotation will need to pitch out of their fucking minds and shock people.
Pablo Lopez impressed me big time down the stretch, but after that it gets thin.
Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack?
Chris Paddack?!?
Fail: Well, it’s the Twins.
They’re not really a serious bunch.
Buxton has played more than 100 games one time in his career and it came in 2017.
Parlay them with their young talent and you’ve got yourself a team that can be frisky.
There at least is acting like a plan in place and signs of a productive rebuild.
Can’t say that for some other teams in their position.
Hell, even the rotation is sneaky decent.
Jack Flaherty was back to throwing 97 mph in spring training starts.
Skubal continuing his rise and dominance would be music to Detroit’s ears.
Is it crazy to think they can sneak in as a 3rd wild card?
Maybe steal the division if Minnesota has a down year?
+350 to win the Central isn’t too bad.
Fail: Just too early for them.
It’s fine with the potential to be a strong weakness.
They don’t hit at all or really have a pitching staff that offers you a whole lot.
They’re as bland as a team can get.
Contend: How about a positive?
Shane Bieber looks good!
His velo is humming again and he appears back to full strength.
If he gets back into Cy Young mode and Jose Ramirez becomes Barry Bonds then Cleveland might have something.
It’s also the AL Central.
It can very much be up for grabs if you play your cards right.
Chase DeLauter is a guy Cleveland fans can think about for the future.
Fail: If Bieber is on this team past the trade deadline I’ll be stunned.
Honestly it’s time to trade Jose Ramirez as well, considering how team friendly his contract is.
This team isn’t gonna win a lot of games and should be strictly aiming for the future.
They can really help build their farm by dealing their two big vets who deserve to be on contenders.
Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, and Adam Frazier are real MLB players!
Good for them and good for Bobby getting his money, he’s a star.
Contend: Well, it is the AL Central!
Could the Royals find themselves in a dog fight with the Twins and Tigers for the division?
I suppose crazier things have happened.
Admittedly this is a big stretch.
They didn’t a win a single postseason series in that window.
They totaled 90+ wins ONCE!
What a joke of a franchise.
They finally recognized their failures and pulled the plug.
Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, Liam Hendriks, and Yasmani Grandal are all gone.
Robert, Eloy, Moncada, and Benintendi.
His nightmare 2nd half and continued inconsistencies have caused an audible to be called in his development.
This is their projected starting rotation.
They gave it a good run.
They are inevitable and my forever boogeyman.
They lose Michael Brantley, but he was over the hill anyways and couldn’t stay healthy.
Jose Altuve got extended so he’s here to terrorize me for another half decade.
So now Houston enters 2024 with revenge on their minds.
Contend: It’s the Astros.
They fall out of bed and contend.
Even if they appear like they’re on one leg in July, they find a way.
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman.
If they’re in the lineup, I’ll always fear them.
Still, it’d be dumb to not recognize how short they can make games with those names.
Don’t care for it.
Are there any pictures of him and a controversial figure together anywhere?
Verlander finally reaches the point where he’s too old and completely breaks down.
Bregman becomes furious that the Astros didn’t offer to pay him and demands a trade at the deadline.
Altuve admits that he did wear buzzers and retires from the sport altogether.
Yeah, good luck facing that.
Contend: I’d say the plan is to mash their way back to the Fall Classic.
Losing none of their offense and gaining Langford seems to be a good step in that direction.
I don’t know what his deal is and when we ever see him.
I thought Seattle was a dark horse for Shohei Ohtani, especially since he spends his offseasons there.
Not even sure they knew he was a free agent.
They did bring in Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco, who will help things, but is it enough?
Im talking like I dont like the Mariners here, but I actually do.
They should be a playoff team.
Contend: J-Rod elevates his game to another level and wins the AL MVP.
I typically lose those wagers.
Get J-Rod some help.
88 wins wasn’t enough to crack the wild card last year.
Did they do enough to improve the lineup and get back there this time?
I’m not sure.
It’s time for Seattle to open up the check book and get another star to pair with Rodriguez.
Jose Ramirez would be a great fit and wouldn’t cost much in terms of dollars and cents.
Just a thought…
Los Angeles Angels (72.5)
No Shohei.
Ben Verlander spontaneously combusts.
Fail: This team is the definition of mid.
Aaron Hicks is slotted in as their 2 hitter?
Trout hasn’t played 120 games in a season since 2019.
At some point you have to trade that guy who the sake of all parties involved.
Their rotation is dreadful and the bullpen isn’t a whole lot better.
72.5 wins feels high.
We’re just gonna do this all again?
What a depressing sight that’s gonna be.
You won’t believe it, but the A’s did nothing this offseason.
Their estimated payroll for 2024 is $61 million.
Fail: If they play baseball games then they will fail.
Theres gotta be something you could find on this guy.
Well that’s 4,800 plus words of nonsense.
I’m sorry for that, it got out of hand again.
And as always, kindly bet responsibly.
